The 2020 F1 Silly Season is Go!
With Sebastian Vettel confirmed to be leaving Ferrari at the end of the 2020 season, I take a look at the potential driver moves, and how the 2021 grid could shape up, ahead of the crucial 2022 regulation changes.
JOHN NICHOLS
MAY 15, 2020
EDIT: The majority of this piece was written on Tuesday 12 and Wednesday 13 May. On Thursday 14 May, Carlos Sainz was confirmed to be replacing Sebastian Vettel at Ferrari, and Daniel Ricciardo was signed to McLaren to partner Lando Norris, both in two-year deals. It’s interesting to see that my main hunch of a Scuderia seat for Sainz came to light, as well as my fantasty pick of Ricciardo to Renault! Vettel’s status is currently unknown, but with the German winning all four of his titles with a Renault engine, and Renault now lacking a star driver, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him suit up in yellow for 2020.
Racefans.net keeps an up-to-date list of driver contracts, and any further developments are best checked here.
The month of May brings with it a lot of change. Flowers begin to bloom, the weather gets warmer, and the Formula 1 silly season gets well underway. With the summer break looming and early-season performances to look back on, each year speculation arises as to which drivers will stay and which will move for the season ahead. Some years, this boils down to a few expected changes, and other years, we see major changes with the potential to shake up the entire grid. This year, we’re seeing the latter.
Following much media speculation of their contractual negotiations, and after six increasingly tumultuous years with the Scuderia, Sebastian Vettel confirmed that he would be leaving Ferrari at the end of the 2020 F1 season.
On the surface, this appears to simply boil down to Vettel wanting a multi-year deal, and Ferrari wishing for a one-year extension, although rumours are abound that Vettel’s performances throughout 2018 and 2019, as well as the rise of Charles Leclerc, have played a part in the breakdown of negotiations.
Whatever the reason boiled down to, it is clear that this will have huge ramifications for the F1 driver market. Vettel has already been linked to a number of teams, and so I will take a look at the numerous possibility and try to put forward what I think the 2021 F1 grid is most likely to look like.
To start, let’s ignore the open seat at the Scuderia, and look solely at Vettel’s options for 2021.
Where will Vettel go?
Helmut Marko, motorsport boss at Red Bull, has openly stated that they will not have a seat open for Vettel back at his four-time World Championship-winning team, arguing that they simply can’t afford him alongside Max Verstappen. If Red Bull are unwilling to sign him, I suspect that a seat at their junior team AlphaTauri is also unlikely – it’s unlikely that Vettel would be happy with a seat in a feeder team, fighting the the midfield.
Aston Martin (currently known as Racing Point) are also unlikely to have an open seat. Sergio Perez has just signed a three-year extension for the Silverstone-based outfit, and Lance Stroll, with his father being part-owner of the team, is very unlikely to be replaced. I believe it won’t be too much longer before we see Stroll sign a new contract with the team.
Despite Guenther Steiner’s difficulty with having both Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen at Haas, I don’t believe they would be prepared to pay the kind of salary Vettel would be expecting, nor do I think Vettel would be prepared to join a team in the lower midfield. The same goes for Williams who, in the midst of a rebuilding phase, have neither funds nor desire to spend big money on a star driver.
Although Lewis Hamilton has been linked to a seat with the Scuderia, he has recently distanced himself from such a move, and with Mercedes likely highly opposed to having both Hamilton and Vettel, two star drivers, in the same team, it looks at though Bottas’ seat is secure, and Vettel has no opportunities here.
This leaves three teams in the mix; McLaren, Renault and Alfa Romeo.
Although the McLaren-Honda partnership paid out large salaries to Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button several years ago, I believe the only situation in which McLaren would sign Vettel to a deal now is if they are confident they will be competing for race wins come the 2022 regulation changes. McLaren have been edging closer towards the top three teams, and I think they’d view investing the funds into their 2022 car, rather than a star driver, to be a better investment in the aim of competing for championships in the upcoming seasons.
Renault do pay a tidy £26.5mil per year to Daniel Ricciardo, but with Esteban Ocon contracted with the Enstone-based team until the end of 2021, and Ricciardo out of contract at the end of 2020, the French team would have to decide between two highly-regarded, experienced drivers. Unless Ricciardo obtains the open Ferrari seat, I can’t see the French outfit choosing Vettel over the Australian, especially with Ricciardo getting the best of Vettel when they were teammates at Red Bull in 2014.
A move to Alfa Romeo to join ex-Ferrari teammate Kimi Raikkonen may be an enticing prospect. Kimi himself has commented on how he enjoys the more relaxed atmosphere at the Hinwil-based outfit, and the anticipation of a high salary and low-pressure environment would likely be of much interest to Vettel, who has had a stressful last few seasons. However, with Alfa being the development team for Ferrari, the Scuderia would much prefer Kimi’s teammate to be a development seat, and I don’t believe Alfa would pay such a large salary to have two star drivers.
Honestly, it’s very difficult to see where Vettel would fit in 2021. The only option I can see would be Raikkonen, who would be 41 years-old by the start of the 2021 season, retiring to make way for Vettel, leaving the development seat at Alfa Romeo open for one of their academy drivers – either retaining Giovinazzi if he isn’t given the Ferrari seat, or calling Mick Schumacher up from F2 to gain some experience in F1 machinery.
Now we’ve looked at where Vettel may go, let’s look at the likely candidates for his Ferrari seat.
Who will join Ferrari?
Carlos Sainz appears to be the leading candidate, and it’s easy to see why. Having delivered solid, consistent results for numerous teams since joining the F1 paddock in 2015, his stock has only increased, and being only 25 years-old, it would set Ferrari’s driver lineup for many years to come – provided that Leclerc and Sainz can work well together.
Ricciardo has often defended his move to Renault in 2019, but after numerous seasons of moderate success at Red Bull followed by a disappointing first year with Renault, it is unsurprising that rumours are circulating that he is unhappy at the French outfit. Having proven his worth during his time at Red Bull, Ferrari may well be looking towards the Australian as the experienced hand to Leclerc’s youth. However, Ferrari often look for a clear number 1 and number 2 driver, and I am certain that neither Leclerc nor Ricciardo would cede to the other.
Although Antonio Giovinazzi has been with the Ferrari Driver Academy for many years now, having been comprehensively beaten by teammate Kimi Raikkonen in his 2019 campaign at Ferrari sister team Alfa Romeo, I can’t see that he would be the Scuderia’s top candidate for the open seat.
Whilst Mick Schumacher moving to Ferrari would be a dream result in the eyes of many of the Tifosi, the young German is simply too inexperienced to move straight into a Ferrari seat – I think it is much more likely we’ll see him placed into Alfa Romeo to prove his worth before given the responsibility of a seat with the Scuderia. He performed well in his 2019 F1 test, so I’m sure it will not be long before we see the young German on the grid.
I believe Sainz will be the driver to fill Vettel’s Ferrari seat. His strong form, likeability and age all play into a strong prospect for the Scuderia, and with his McLaren salary in 2019 only being roughly £3.25mil, he will be great value for money as well. Ferrari would be fools to pass on the opportunity of signing him, and Sainz would be a fool not to take the offer if the Scuderia come knocking.
Should Sainz make the move to Ferrari, this leaves his McLaren seat open. Provided Lando Norris stays at McLaren (which I believe is a no-brainer for 2021), I think we may be seeing a welcome return to the grid for Nico Hulkenberg. There’s no obvious candidates from Formula 2 that can move up to fill the seat, nor do I think McLaren has options across the rest of the Formula 1 grid that would suit, or be happy to move. Hulkenberg would be 33 years-old at the start of the 2021 season, and could play the experienced hand to Lando’s youth, giving McLaren a reliable, proven driver with which to work with come 2022. With the 2022 regulations hopefully looking set to shake up the grid order, McLaren will be pushing to move up the grid, and a Norris/Hulkenberg pairing, in competitive machinery, would be more than capable of fighting for podiums, or even victories.
What will the 2021 F1 Grid look like?
Teams had, of course, anticipated that the 2020 season would be the last under the current set of regulations, until the COVID-19 pandemic forced the planned 2021 regulation changes to be moved to the 2022 season. As the teams will have plenty on their hands grasping the new regulations, adding new drivers to the mix would be an additional hurdle to overcome, and teams likely already had their driver lineup for the regulation changes in mind when picking their choices for 2020. Because of this, I think it’s likely that we’ll see relatively few changes across the grid as a whole.
With this in mind, here’s how I think the 2021 Formula 1 grid will most likely shape up:
Despite Vettel’s history with McLaren’s Team Principal Andreas Seidl during his short time at BMW Sauber, I would be surprised if McLaren are willing to pay the kind of money Vettel will be looking for, even if money wasn’t a contributor to the breakdown of his negotiations with Ferrari. Nevertheless, McLaren are likely to look for an experienced hand to partner Norris, revealing a path back to F1 for Nico Hulkenberg, who was dropped by Renault at the end of 2019.
Giovinazzi, despite his test driver status at Ferrari in 2017 and 2018 followed by his time at Alfa Romeo in 2019, has not impressed, comprehensively beaten by Raikkonen in his first full-length campaign. Turning 27 by the time of the 2021 season, I think Ferrari will look elsewhere to fill the development driver seat, and look for a suitable young talent. With Mick Schumacher performing well in the lower formulas, winning the F3 title in 2018 and taking a race win in F2 in 2019, it would make sense for him to gain experience at Alfa Romeo to wait in the wings for a dream return for the Schumacher name to the Scuderia in the years to come.
If McLaren does opt for Vettel, I anticipate that will be the only change on the grid compared to the above:
If Ferrari opt for Ricciardo rather than Sainz, here’s the grid I think we will see:
Renault have invested heavily into their F1 programme, and they will be hoping that the 2022 regulations present an opportunity for them to move towards the front of the grid, and a four-time World Champion in Vettel will be just the driver to get them there. Ocon would be asked to play a number 2 role here, but should Vettel’s recent bad form continue, we may see a difficult team situation, as the Frenchman proved his pace at Force India in 2017 and 2018.
If Renault don’t find success following the 2022 regulations, I think they’ll find it difficult to justify their continuation in F1. They came back in 2016 and spent a lot of money in an attempt to get to the front of the grid, which has been a fruitless endeavour thus far. Should the new regulations not present a change in fortunes, I believe the team will face a lot of pressure from higher up to wind-up their F1 operations.
Lastly, as an exercise in fantasy drafting, I thought I’d entertain the thought of Hamilton moving to Ferrari, and the potential upheaval this could cause to the F1 grid:
There’s a plethora of changes here, so let’s go from team-to-team down the grid and I’ll explain my thought process!
First, as mentioned, Hamilton makes a shock move to Ferrari, leading to Mercedes picking up Vettel in a straight driver swap. Mercedes promote George Russell to a number 2 seat to allow Williams to gain an experienced driver in Bottas to help in their rebuilding phase.
Ricciardo, unhappy with the performance of the Renault machine, lands a seat at McLaren, leading to Sainz reuniting with the French outfit that he left at the end of 2018.
Red Bull, growing frustrated with Daniil Kyvat’s performances at AlphaTauri since rejoining the former Toro Rosso outfit in 2019, asks their junior team to replace him with Red Bull Junior and current test driver Sérgio Sette Câmara.
Raikkonen decides to drive for one last season at Alfa Romeo, whilst Ferrari opt to move Giovinazzi back to a test driver role, promoting Mick Schumacher to the second Alfa Romeo seat.
Guenther Steiner runs out of patience with the often volatile pairing of Grosjean and Magnussen, and with Magnussen outscoring his teammate in both 2018 and 2019, the team opts to strike a deal with Williams to promote one of their test drivers, Jack Aitken, into Grosjean’s seat.
Speculation is abound at the moment, and it will be very interesting to see just how the 2021 F1 grid shapes up. The last time we saw such a shock move was when Nico Rosberg retired as reigning Drivers’ Champion at the end of the 2016 season, forcing a series of moves that delayed Felipe Massa’s retirement by a full season. With it looking likely that the 2020 season will run in a limited capacity, until we go racing again, it’s good to see that the silly season is here to keep us entertained as always!
Published May 15, 2020.